$500 idea · Pattern-breaking · Canada · Edition 011
Canada tested 100 trademark registrations at random and 54 died without a reply.
In January 2025 the Registrar of Trademarks picked registrations out of the Canadian register at random and sent each owner a notice under section 45 of the Trademarks Act asking for sworn evidence that the mark was in use. Of the first hundred, 54 were expunged because nobody answered, 36 were maintained, and 10 were discontinued once the owner produced evidence of use.
The capital is CAD $702.70 (USD $500 at 1.4054, Bank of Canada daily average, 20 October 2026 — the 21 October rate had not been posted at the time of writing) and the target is CAD $7,027.00 a month (USD $5,000), or CAD $84,324.00 a year. The claim of this edition is that Canada maintains the cheapest and most lopsided deadwood-clearing procedure in the common-law world, that its own regulator ran a controlled experiment proving the register is more than half dead on contact, and that almost nobody uses it.
Section 45 of the Trademarks Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. T-13, last amended by 2018, c. 27, s. 222, is three paragraphs of procedure that behave like a weapon. Subsection 45(1): the Registrar shall, at the written request of “any person who pays the prescribed fee”, require a registered owner to furnish within three months an affidavit or statutory declaration showing whether the mark was used in Canada in the preceding three years. CIPO’s own practice notice, amended 22 January 2026, says the Registrar will issue the notice “unless the Registrar sees good reason for not doing so”, decided case by case. In practice that bar is close to the floor.
Then comes the part that makes the economics strange. Subsection 45(2): “The Registrar shall not receive any evidence other than the affidavit or statutory declaration” — meaning the owner’s. CIPO’s guidance to the requesting party is blunter still: “Do not submit evidence.” You are not permitted to. You cannot cross-examine the affiant either; the procedure has no provision for it. You pay a fee, you name a registration number, and the entire cost of the proceeding lands on the other side — affidavit, exhibits, service, representations, agent time — or the registration dies.
That is the trade, and it is worth naming who is on each side of it. The buyer is anyone who wants a name. The seller is a registered owner who, three or more years after registration, has to decide whether a mark they may no longer sell under is worth the cost of swearing to it. The Registrar is the house, and it takes $595.06 either way.
Who actually sends these notices is public, because every decision is styled with the requesting party’s name. In 2025 and 2026 they include 14095863 Canada Inc., a federal numbered company incorporated for $200, which attacked six Moosehead Breweries registrations at once and took one of them off the register; an individual, Regeena Lifeso, against Toys “R” Us (Canada) Ltd; and a two-person partnership, Mohammid Simon and Kenniesha Simon, trading as Killa Garments, against Kurt Geiger Limited. Law firms file in their own names too — Borden Ladner Gervais LLP v JAWHP, LLC, Shift Law Professional Corporation v Joanna Habbous — which is the tell: the requesting party is a party in its own right, not an agent for anybody.
The non-consensus reading is that the Canadian trademark bar has the economics backwards. In fiscal 2024–25 it filed 1,160 statements of opposition at $1,115.08 each, fighting applications that have not yet become anything, and got 111 decisions. It filed 923 section 45 notices at the cheaper fee, attacking registrations that already exist and already block, and got 690 decisions — 6.22 times as many outcomes from fewer filings. Oppositions mostly evaporate. Section 45 proceedings mostly decide.
And the whole national take from section 45 is $549,240.38 a year at the 2026 fee: 923 notices against 70,207 applications filed, one notice for every 76.06 applications. Canada’s register absorbed 74,793 new applications in calendar 2025, 64.59% of them from outside the country — 17,799 from the United States and 10,913 from China. The register grows from abroad and is pruned by almost no one.
There is a second regulation that decides what kind of business this can be, and it is the one most people miss. Trademarks Regulations, SOR/2018-227, s. 25(1): “a person may be represented by another person only if that other person is a trademark agent”. The exceptions in s. 25(3) — filing an application, paying a fee, renewing — do not include a section 45 proceeding. So an unlicensed person cannot run one for a client. They can be the requesting party themselves, which the Act expressly permits, and they can sell the research that decides which registration to point at. The published case styles show the whole market already arranged this way.
One number should temper all of this. CIPO cut its examination inventory by 42% in 2025 and brought the wait to examination down to 7.8 months from a peak near 1,700 days. The backlog that made a blocking registration unbearable is gone. What remains is the register itself, and the Registrar’s own sample says more than half of it will not defend.
The evidence
8 findings“Any person who pays the prescribed fee”
Subsection 45(1): after three years from registration, the Registrar shall, at the written request of “any person who pays the prescribed fee”, or may on their own initiative, require the registered owner to furnish within three months an affidavit or statutory declaration showing whether the trademark was in use in Canada during the preceding three years. The requesting party may ask that the notice be limited to particular goods or services.
Subsection 45(2): “The Registrar shall not receive any evidence other than the affidavit or statutory declaration”. Subsection 45(3): where use is not shown and the absence of use is not excused by special circumstances, the registration is liable to be expunged or amended. Subsection 45(4.1): subject to the regulations, the Registrar may award costs; 45(4.2) makes a costs order filable in the Federal Court. Amendment history: 1993, c. 44, s. 232; 1994, c. 47, s. 200; 2014, c. 20, ss. 349, 361(E); 2018, c. 27, s. 222. Trademarks Act s. 45
The regulator tells you, in writing, that you may not file evidence
“Anyone (the requesting party) may request the issuance of a section 45 notice.” No standing, no stated reason, and no agent: CIPO confirms a requesting party may represent itself. The practice notice says the Registrar will issue the notice “unless the Registrar sees good reason for not doing so”, assessed case by case.
What the requesting party must not do, in CIPO’s own words: “Do not submit evidence” — only the registered owner may; do not expect to cross-examine the affiant, as the process has no provision for it; do not expect extensions of time for written representations or a hearing request. Written representations are due two months from the Registrar’s notice; the owner gets three months to furnish and serve evidence, extendable by up to four. A party using AI to prepare representations must say so. Start to finish: two to four years. FAQ — the requesting party
The rule that decides whether this is a business or a hobby
Subsection 25(1): “a person may be represented by another person only if that other person is a trademark agent”. Subsection 25(2): once an agent is appointed, the person may not represent themselves and only that agent or an associate may act.
Subsection 25(3) lists the acts a person may do unrepresented or through a non-agent: filing a trademark application, an international registration application or a transformation application; paying a fee; giving notice under s. 23; renewing under s. 46 of the Act; and requests or evidence under s. 48. A section 45 proceeding is not on that list. You may be the requesting party; you may not be someone else’s representative in it. SOR/2018-227, s. 25
Killing a registration costs 1.21 times what creating one costs
Notice requiring evidence of use under s. 45(1), per notice: $595.06. Notice for information under s. 44(1), per notice: $595.06. Statement of opposition under s. 38(1): $1,115.08. Application filed online, first class: $491.06; each additional class $149.04. Filed by other means, first class: $640.10.
Renewal online, first class $595.06, each additional class $185.49. Extension of time under s. 47, per act: $150.00. Recording or registering a transfer: $125.00. The fee is set by the date the Registrar receives payment; a payment received before 1 January 2027 pays the 2026 amount, after which most items rise 1.7%. Fees for trademarks
The controlled experiment: 100 registrations drawn at random, 54 abandoned
CIPO launched a pilot in January 2025 in which the Registrar issued section 45 notices on its own initiative to registrations selected at random from five categories: registrations based on use; on proposed use with a filed declaration of use; on use and registration abroad; on multiple bases; and registrations on the register for more than three years. About 200 notices in total were issued, the first batch of 100 in January 2025.
Of that first hundred: 54 registrations expunged for failure to respond, 36 maintained, 10 discontinued after the owner’s evidence showed use. CIPO has not published results for the later batches and has said it will consult once a statistically significant number of proceedings have concluded. The two firm accounts disagree on when the later batches went out — February and March 2025 in one, June and July in the other. Canadian trademark law 2025: a year in review · Gowling WLG on the pilot
923 notices against 70,207 applications
Fiscal 2024–25: section 45 notices issued 923; section 45 decisions rendered 690. Statements of opposition filed 1,160; opposition decisions rendered 111. Applications filed 70,207, up from 68,862. Disposals 99,310. Average turnaround for registration 34.5. Top applicants: L’Oréal 243, Novartis AG 158, IGT 123, Home Depot International 99, Milwaukee Electric Tool 85; the top Canadian filer was Scouts Canada at 70.
Calendar 2025, from the IP Canada Report 2026 (CIPO data retrieved 28 April 2026): 74,793 applications, up 9%. Residents 26,487, up 21%; non-residents 48,306, up 3%. United States 17,799, China 10,913, United Kingdom 2,007, Germany 1,946, France 1,847. Madrid route 21,819 against 52,974 direct. Trademark statistics 2024–25 · IP Canada Report 2026
A numbered company, an individual and a two-person partnership, versus multinationals
14095863 Canada Inc. v Moosehead Breweries Limited, 2026 TMOB 133, reported 29 July 2026: six registrations attacked at once. TMA252,475, MOOSEHEAD BEER BOTTLE LABEL DESIGN, expunged. TMA360,450, TMA498,373 and TMA1,073,502 amended with goods deleted. TMA320,108 and TMA442,653 maintained for brewed alcoholic beverages. Order made under ss. 63(3) and 45. No costs were awarded.
Other named requesting parties: Regeena Lifeso v Toys “R” Us (Canada) Ltd, 2025 TMOB 12; Partnership Mohammid Simon & Kenniesha Simon (Killa Garments) v Kurt Geiger Limited, 2025 TMOB 3; Shift Law Professional Corporation v Joanna Habbous, 2025 TMOB 197; Borden Ladner Gervais LLP v JAWHP, LLC, 2025 TMOB 4; USConnect, LLC v Lodestar Anstalt, 2025 TMOB 77. On appeal, Centric Brands Holding LLC v Stikeman Elliott LLP, 2025 FCA 161, restored the AVIREX registration, holding a purchase agreement signed inside the relevant period can be a special circumstance. 2026 TMOB 133 reported
$595.06 in, $337.30 a day out, and a 0.64-point margin
Capital: 500 × 1.4054 = CAD $702.70. Target: 5,000 × 1.4054 = CAD $7,027.00 a month, CAD $84,324.00 a year, and over 250 working days CAD $337.30 a day.
One notice against the capital: 595.06 ÷ 702.70 = 84.68%; 702.70 ÷ 595.06 = 1.18 notices, leaving $107.64. Against the target: 595.06 ÷ 7,027 = 8.47% of one month, 595.06 ÷ 84,324 = 0.706% of the year, 595.06 ÷ 337.30 = 1.76 billed days. Against creation: 595.06 ÷ 491.06 = 1.21× the fee to file an application.
Diagram coordinates. Curve c = 595.06 ÷ p: p = 0.30 → $1,983.53; 0.40 → $1,487.65; 0.50 → $1,190.12; 0.60 → $991.77; 0.70 → $850.09; 0.80 → $743.83; 0.90 → $661.18; 1.00 → $595.06. Placed by x = 90 + (p − 0.30) × 842.857 and y = 320 − (c − 500) × 0.173333. Opposition line: c = 1,115.08 → y = 213.39. Crossing: p = 595.06 ÷ 1,115.08 = 0.533644 → x = 286.92. Observed: p = 0.54 → c = $1,101.96, x = 292.29, y = 215.66. Margin 54.00 − 53.36 = 0.64 points, worth $13.12.
Market size: 923 ÷ 70,207 = 1.31%, one notice per 76.06 applications. Crown revenue at the 2026 fee: 923 × 595.06 = $549,240.38, which is 6.51 years of this edition’s target for the entire country. Oppositions: 1,160 × 1,115.08 = $1,293,492.80, 2.36× the section 45 take for 6.22× fewer decisions (690 ÷ 111). Foreign share of 2025 filings: 48,306 ÷ 74,793 = 64.59%.
The ladder: 84,324 ÷ 2,350 = 35.88 engagements a year, call it 3 a month at CAD $2,350, of which $595.06 is the government fee and $1,754.94 is yours — a 74.68% gross margin. The warning in the same arithmetic: 36 ÷ 923 = 3.90% of every section 45 notice filed in Canada in a year, by one person. BoC FXUSDCAD
The ladder
From $500 to $5,000 a month · C$703 → C$7,026CAD $702.70 against a published fee of $595.06 for one notice requiring evidence of use. There is no volume discount, no fee waiver and no instalment. You get 1.18 notices and $107.64 of change. Every other rung has to be free.
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Accept that the whole capital buys one letter
CAD $702.70 against a published fee of $595.06 for one notice requiring evidence of use. There is no volume discount, no fee waiver and no instalment. You get 1.18 notices and $107.64 of change. Every other rung has to be free.
595.06 ÷ 702.70 = 84.68% · 1.76 billed days -
Stop looking for standing, because the Act does not ask for any
Section 45(1) says “any person who pays the prescribed fee”. CIPO’s own FAQ says anyone may request and may represent themselves. You do not need to be a competitor, you do not need to explain yourself, and you do not need to have been refused anything first. The Registrar issues unless it sees good reason not to.
s. 45(1) “any person who pays the prescribed fee” -
Read the prohibition as the product
You are forbidden to file evidence and you cannot cross-examine. That looks like a disability and it is the entire economic advantage: your cost is fixed at the fee, and the other side’s cost is an affidavit, exhibits, service and representations, with no cap. One side’s bill is printed on a schedule; the other side’s is not.
s. 45(2) · CIPO: “Do not submit evidence” -
Price against the Registrar’s own random sample, not against hope
Nobody has to estimate the default rate, because the regulator measured it on registrations it drew at random and then published the result: 54 expunged on silence, 36 maintained, 10 discontinued. That is the only base rate in this trade that was not produced by someone selling the trade.
54 / 36 / 10 of 100 · January 2025 cohort -
Know the crossing point before you file anything
Expected cost per cleared registration is 595.06 divided by the default rate. One statement of opposition — the orthodox move, against a mere application — costs $1,115.08 flat. The two meet at a 53.36% default rate. Below it the orthodox move is cheaper. The measured rate is 54.0%. The whole edge is 0.64 of a percentage point.
595.06 ÷ 0.54 = $1,101.96 vs $1,115.08 -
Be a party, never a representative
Trademarks Regulations s. 25(1) reserves representation to registered trademark agents, and the s. 25(3) exceptions do not reach a section 45 proceeding. So the sellable work is the register audit — which registrations actually block, which are older than three years, which owner has gone quiet — and the notice is filed by the client as “any person”, or by you in your own name as the requesting party. The published case styles are full of both.
SOR/2018-227 s. 25(1) · s. 25(3) does not list s. 45 -
Do the arithmetic that says this is small, and then decide
Three engagements a month at CAD $2,350 reaches the target with a 74.68% gross margin. It also makes you 3.90% of every section 45 notice filed in Canada in a year. A whole country files 923 of these and the Crown collects $549,240.38 for them. That is the opportunity and the ceiling in one number.
84,324 ÷ 2,350 = 35.88/yr · 36 ÷ 923 = 3.90% of Canada
Sources
11 primary documents- Trademarks Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. T-13, s. 45 — Justice Laws Website (as amended 2018, c. 27, s. 222)
- CIPO / Trademarks Opposition Board — FAQ on section 45 proceedings: the requesting party
- CIPO — Practice in section 45 proceedings (amended 22 January 2026)
- Trademarks Regulations, SOR/2018-227, s. 25 — representation reserved to trademark agents
- CIPO — Fees for trademarks, 2026 schedule
- CIPO — Trademark statistics 2024–25 (published 24 September 2025)
- CIPO — IP Canada Report 2026 (published 9 October 2026)
- Smart & Biggar — Canadian trademark law 2025: a year in review (Registrar-initiated pilot results: 54 / 36 / 10)
- Gowling WLG — CIPO launches pilot project on registrar-initiated non-use proceeding (Jennifer L. Morton, 2025)
- Canadian Lawyer — 14095863 Canada Inc. v Moosehead Breweries Limited, 2026 TMOB 133 (reported 29 July 2026)
- Bank of Canada — Valet API, FXUSDCAD daily average, 20 October 2026 (1.4054)