Edition 046Saturday, 31 October 2026
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The $500 Ladder

Primary sources. Published arithmetic. No courses.

$500 idea · Pattern break · Edition 046

Unclaimed songwriter royalties are handed, by statute, to the songs already paid.

The Copyright Office published the numbers on 3 June 2026 and nobody read them as a price list. The Mechanical Licensing Collective’s match rate is a function of how much money is at stake: “for the highest tier it is over 99%” for works that have earned more than $5,000, “approximately 83%” between $100 and $500, “and for works with a cumulative royalty value under $100, it is 63%.” A dollar belonging to a small work is 37× more likely to go unmatched than a dollar belonging to a large one. Of $568,945,432.36 held for 2021–2024 usage, $243,856,456.84 is unclaimed — 42.86%. And 17 U.S.C. § 115(d)(3)(J)(i)(II) does not return it to late claimants: it is paid out “based on data indicating the relative market shares of such copyright owners,” which means to the songs that were matched. The MLC has now set the date. Market share distributions begin in April 2027, off a database snapshot taken “on or around February 10, 2027” — 102 days from today — releasing “just over $6 million” of January 2021 money in the first month, which at that rate is 40.64 months of drip to clear the pool. Registering a work to stop this costs $0. Songtrust charges $100 and 20% of mechanicals to do it for you.

Jump to the ladder

Context

Every time a song is streamed in the United States a small payment is owed to whoever wrote it, separately from anything the performer is paid. A single organisation, created by Congress and paid for by the streaming services rather than by songwriters, collects all of those payments and tries to work out which writer each one belongs to. When it cannot find them it holds the money for some years and then, if nobody has come forward, pays it out according to a formula written into the law. Today’s edition is about that formula, who it favours, and the date on which the paying out starts.

Start with the table, because the table is the whole finding. In its periodic review of the collective’s designation — Docket No. 2024–1, 91 FR 33208, published 3 June 2026 — the Copyright Office reports match rates not as one number but as five, sorted by how much each musical work has earned since January 2021. The tiers are “greater than $5,000”, “between $1,000 and $5,000”, “between $500 and $1,000”, “between $100 and $500” and “under $100.” The top three are “each above 90%”; the highest is “over 99%”; the fourth is “approximately 83%”; the fifth is “63%.” Read as failure rather than success, that is 1% unmatched at the top and 37% unmatched at the bottom. The system is not uniformly imperfect. It is 37× worse at finding you when your song is small.

Now read what happens to the 37%. 17 U.S.C. § 115(d)(3)(H)(i) sets a holding period of “not less than 3 years after the date on which the funds were received by the mechanical licensing collective.” § 115(d)(3)(J)(i) then provides that “after the expiration of the prescribed holding period … the mechanical licensing collective shall distribute such accrued royalties,” and (J)(i)(II) fixes the basis: “based on data indicating the relative market shares of such copyright owners … as reflected in reports of usage provided by digital music providers for covered activities.” There is no residual claim, no escheat to the state, no second chance. The money that could not be matched to a small work is paid, pro rata, to works that were matched — which, by the Office’s own table, are overwhelmingly the large ones.

There is a clause that reads like a protection and functions as a redistribution. § 115(d)(3)(J)(iv) requires a copyright owner receiving such a distribution to pay or credit a share onward to its songwriters, notwithstanding any contrary agreement, and “in no case shall the payment or credit to an individual songwriter be less than 50 percent.” So half of every unmatched dollar does reach a songwriter. It reaches a different songwriter — one whose publisher already found their money. The statute moves half the pool from writers who were missed to writers who were not, and calls it a songwriter protection. (J)(iii) adds that public notice of a pending distribution must be given “not less than 90 days before the date on which the distribution is made.”

The schedule is now published rather than theoretical. The MLC’s market share page states that it “intends to begin market share distributions in April 2027,” starting with January 2021 usage — the first month digital services reported under the blanket licence — and that each distribution will use the database snapshot taken “on or around February 10, 2027” for the April run. It notes the holding period for 2021 usage “will span six years,” twice the legal minimum, and that the remaining January 2021 pool was “less than $7 million” as of the January 2026 distribution and “just over $6 million” as of September 2026. One usage month is released each month thereafter. Against $243,856,456.84 of unclaimed royalties that is 40.64 months, or 3.39 years, of six-million-dollar instalments — and the Office’s own note that the amount eligible for the first distribution is “less than $7 million” is the clearest evidence that the famous pool does not come out in a lump.

Who wants the matching to stop? The people who pay for it. § 115(d)(7)(A) provides that “the collective total costs shall be funded by … an administrative assessment, as such assessment is established by the Copyright Royalty Judges … to be paid by … digital music providers.” In the same proceeding, the Digital Licensee Coordinator and DiMA told the Office that for recordings with less than one dollar of accrued mechanical royalties “it is highly inefficient for MLC[] to expend substantial resources to match these works,” producing “marginal benefits to creators.” They are not wrong about the cost. They are also the parties whose assessment pays that cost, and the works they are describing are the 63% tier. Every work abandoned at the bottom of the table becomes a pro rata credit at the top of it.

Against that, the price of not being in the 37%. The MLC’s own page for self-administered songwriters says, in two separate sentences, “There is no cost to become a Member of The MLC” and “There is no cost to register a musical work with The MLC” — which follows directly from § 115(d)(7)(A), because the streaming services are already paying the collective’s entire operating cost. Songtrust’s published pricing page, read this morning, charges “a flat, one-time fee per songwriter” of $100 plus “an administration fee of 15% for performance royalties and 20% for non-performance” — non-performance being worldwide mechanicals, the exact royalty the MLC collects and pays for nothing. Over five years a writer earning more than $75 a year of US mechanicals pays Songtrust more than a $175 one-off would have cost. Over ten years the crossover is $37.50 a year.

Which is the route. The asset is not a licence, a bond or a catalogue: it is the 102 days before the snapshot, and the work is registering other people’s songs into a free system that is demonstrably bad at finding small ones. Price it as a flat fee, never as a share, and never take custody of a client’s money — the whole reason this is a $500 business and not a bonded one is that the songwriter stays the member and the MLC pays them directly. At $175 a catalogue, $5,000 a month after 2026 federal tax needs $78,037.88 of gross fees, 445.93 catalogues a year, 37.16 a month, 1.72 a working day. The $500 is repaid by catalogue number 2.95.

THE MATCH RATE IS A FUNCTION OF THE MONEY · AND THE MISS IS PAID TO THE MATCH MLC MATCH RATE BY CUMULATIVE ROYALTY VALUE OF THE WORK SINCE JAN 2021 · 91 FR 33208, 3 JUNE 2026 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% SHARE OF USAGE MATCHED TO A WORK > $5,000 $1,000–5,000 $500–1,000 $100–500 < $100 CUMULATIVE ROYALTY EARNED BY THE WORK SINCE JANUARY 2021 1% ≤10% ≤10% 17% 37% >99% >90% >90% 83% 63% § 115(d)(3)(J)(i)(II) · THE AMBER IS PAID OUT ON “RELATIVE MARKET SHARES” AMBER = 100% − MATCH RATE. THE TWO MIDDLE TIERS ARE PUBLISHED ONLY AS “ABOVE 90%”. 37% ÷ 1% = 37×. $243,856,456.84 UNCLAIMED OF $568,945,432.36 HELD — 42.86%. FIRST RUN APRIL 2027 · SNAPSHOT ~10 FEB 2027 · 40.64 MONTHS TO CLEAR THE POOL. y: 100% SPANS 290 PX FROM y = 380 AT 0% · BARS 76 PX WIDE, 32 PX APART, FROM x = 126
The Copyright Office publishes the collective’s match rate five times over, once per royalty tier, and the number falls with the money: over 99% above $5,000, 83% between $100 and $500, 63% below $100. The amber is the remainder — 1% at the top, 37% at the bottom, a 37× difference — and it is not held for its owner. § 115(d)(3)(J)(i)(II) distributes it “based on data indicating the relative market shares” of the copyright owners who were matched, which is the arrow. The two middle tiers are published only as “above 90%”, so they are drawn open rather than guessed at. Every plotted coordinate and the arithmetic behind it are in the derived evidence row.

The evidence

7 findings
Statute · United States Code 17 U.S.C. § 115, Scope of exclusive rights in nondramatic musical works read 31 October 2026

Unclaimed royalties are paid out on “relative market shares”, with 50% passed on

(d)(3)(H)(i) sets the holding period: “not less than 3 years after the date on which the funds were received by the mechanical licensing collective,” or three years after the digital music provider accrued them, whichever expires sooner. (d)(3)(J)(i): “After the expiration of the prescribed holding period for accrued royalties provided in subparagraph (H)(i), the mechanical licensing collective shall distribute such accrued royalties,” together with a proportionate share of accrued interest, to copyright owners it has identified; the first such distribution may occur no earlier than 1 January of the second full calendar year after the licence availability date, and at least annually thereafter. (J)(i)(II) fixes the basis as “data indicating the relative market shares of such copyright owners … as reflected in reports of usage provided by digital music providers for covered activities.” (J)(ii) leaves the policies to the unclaimed royalties oversight committee, subject to board approval; (d)(3)(D)(v) requires that committee to have 10 members. (J)(iii) requires a public claiming facility and public notice of a pending distribution “not less than 90 days before the date on which the distribution is made.” (J)(iv): a copyright owner receiving such a distribution must pay or credit a share to the songwriters it licenses or administers notwithstanding any contrary agreement, and “in no case shall the payment or credit to an individual songwriter be less than 50 percent.” (d)(7)(A): “The collective total costs shall be funded by — an administrative assessment, as such assessment is established by the Copyright Royalty Judges … to be paid by … digital music providers that are engaged, in all or in part, in covered activities pursuant to a blanket license” and significant nonblanket licensees. Caveat. Cornell’s page truncates before paragraph (J); uscode.house.gov refused the request on this run; the (J) and (d)(7)(A) text above was read from a United States Code mirror and the Public Law citation for the Music Modernization Act was not verified on this run.

Five match rates, sorted by money: over 99% at the top, 63% at the bottom

The MLC “defined five tiers based on cumulative mechanical royalties earned by a work since January 2021”: “greater than $5,000”, “between $1,000 and $5,000”, “between $500 and $1,000”, “between $100 and $500”, “under $100.” “The MLC’s current average match rates for the top three tiers are each above 90%”; “for the highest tier it is over 99%”; “for works with a cumulative royalty value between $100 and $500, it is approximately 83%”; “and for works with a cumulative royalty value under $100, it is 63%.” Overall match rate across all usage periods: 91.6% — by year, 93.7% (2021), 93.0% (2022), 91.9% (2023), 90.3% (2024). Royalties held for 2021–2024 usage: $568,945,432.36, of which $243,856,456.84 is unclaimed. Historical unmatched royalties transferred to the MLC: $397,196,646.86, of which $195,779,461.26 remains unmatched and $74,473,413.08 remains unclaimed; nearly $314 million matched and about $223.42 million distributed. Membership: “over 80,000 copyright owners.” The amount eligible for the first monthly market-share distribution in early 2027 is “less than $7 million.” Administrative fee ratios: 4.23% (first year), 3.97% (2022), 3.07% (2023), 3.86% (2024). And the sentence this edition turns on, from the Digital Licensee Coordinator and DiMA about recordings with under $1 of accrued mechanicals: “it is highly inefficient for MLC[] to expend substantial resources to match these works,” yielding “marginal benefits to creators.” Caveat. No dollar amount for the administrative assessment itself is stated in this notice; the ratios above are not the assessment.

Platform documentation · the collective itself The Mechanical Licensing Collective, Market Share Distributions read 31 October 2026

The date, the snapshot and the drip: April 2027, 10 Feb 2027, $6 million

“The MLC intends to begin market share distributions in April 2027,” starting with the remaining blanket royalties from January 2021 usage, the first month digital services reported under the blanket licence, and then “one month of remaining blanket royalties each month” thereafter. The allocation is “on a pro rata basis for each DSP and offering” using actual distribution data: “We will not use estimates.” “Every song or share of a song that earned monthly royalties” receives its pro rata share of that month’s remaining pool, whether initially processed or reprocessed, with interest at the statutory rate. The April 2027 run uses the database snapshot taken “on or around February 10, 2027.” The holding period applied to 2021 usage “will span six years,” which the page describes as twice the legal minimum. The remaining January 2021 amount was “less than $7 million” as of the January 2026 distribution and “just over $6 million” as of the September 2026 distribution. The page reports nearly $5 billion processed and a 92% average match rate; for historical royalties, about $397 million transferred in 2021, over $317 million matched and nearly $239 million distributed. Caveat. The historical figures here are later and larger than the Copyright Office’s June 2026 numbers above — $317m against $314m matched, $239m against $223.42m distributed — and both are reproduced rather than reconciled.

Reported · press release The MLC, Annual Membership Meeting meeting 29 September 2026, release 30 September 2026; read 31 October 2026

A named date, announced by a named chief executive

More than $4.2 billion in total royalties distributed to rightsholders; nearly $239 million of historical royalties distributed. The first monthly market share distribution “begins with the April 2027 royalty distribution,” the first instalment covering remaining royalties from January 2021 usage. Remaining unclaimed accrued royalties are allocated “on a song-based, pro rata basis,” separately for each digital service and offering; recipients are rightsholders “based on their relative market shares.” Named: Kris Ahrend, chief executive; board members Kevin Kadish and Troy Verges (songwriter directors), Alisa Coleman and Lidia Kim (publisher directors), with thanks to Jeff Brabec. Caveat. This is the collective’s own announcement of its own plan, and it states no total for the remaining unclaimed pool, pointing instead to a dashboard.

Platform documentation · the collective itself The MLC, Self-Administered Songwriters, and Membership both read 31 October 2026

“There is no cost to become a Member” and no cost to register a work

Two sentences, printed by the collective itself: “There is no cost to become a Member of The MLC” and “There is no cost to register a musical work with The MLC.” A songwriter is “self-administered” if they “have retained the right to register any of their own musical works.” Membership is “the only way to receive digital audio mechanical royalties due to you” from qualifying services, and “anyone entitled to collect digital audio mechanical royalties in the U.S. should become a Member.” The membership page says joining is “free and easy” and names three eligible groups: independent songwriters, music publishers and administrators, and collective management organisations. Registering with the MLC does not replace registration with a performing rights organisation. Caveat. Neither page describes delegated account access, so whether a third party can operate a member’s portal account on their behalf, and under what written authority, was not verified on this run.

Platform documentation · the incumbent Songtrust, Pricing, Terms, and FAQs read 31 October 2026

$100 once, then 20% of mechanicals, for a registration that costs $0

“We charge a flat, one-time fee per songwriter” of $100, covering onboarding, monitoring and catalogue management. “We charge an administration fee of 15% for performance royalties and 20% for non-performance” — non-performance including worldwide mechanical royalties, which is the category the MLC collects. Collection covers songs delivered within the member’s first 365 days that meet activity thresholds, with a one-year post-term collection window on cancellation; the writer keeps copyright ownership and creative control. Caveat. This is one administrator’s published price, not a market survey, and the 20% applies to worldwide mechanicals rather than only to the US blanket royalties the MLC pays. Comparable published prices for CD Baby Pro, Sentric and TuneCore Publishing were not read on this run.

Derived · arithmetic shown From the three documents above plus Rev. Proc. 2025–32 for 2026 federal rates computed 31 October 2026

The plotted points, the crossover and the $78,037.88

Plotted coordinates. Bars are the stated match rates; the amber band is 100% − match rate: 1%, ≤10%, ≤10%, 17%, 37%. The y-axis spans 290 px for 100% from y = 380 at 0%, so 99% → y = 92.90, 90% → 119.00, 83% → 139.30, 63% → 197.30; bars are 76 px wide, 32 px apart, from x = 126. Ratio of unmatched shares: 37% ÷ 1% = 37×. Pool. $243,856,456.84 ÷ $568,945,432.36 = 42.86% unclaimed; $195,779,461.26 ÷ $397,196,646.86 = 49.29% of the historical transfer still unmatched; $243,856,456.84 ÷ $6,000,000 = 40.64 months, 3.39 years. Clock. 31 Oct 2026 to 10 Feb 2027 = 102 days; to 1 Apr 2027 = 152 days. Crossover. A writer’s five-year cost with Songtrust is $100 + 5 × 0.20 × A on annual US mechanicals A; set equal to a $175 flat fee and A = (175 − 100) ÷ 1.00 = $75.00 a year; over ten years, $37.50. The ladder. At $175 a catalogue, $60,000 of gross fees is 342.86 catalogues a year; costs of $2,342.86 (formation and agent $350, domain, mailbox and invoicing $150, card processing 2.9% + $0.30 × 342.86 = $1,842.86) leave $57,657.14 pre-tax. As a single-filer sole proprietor with no other income on 2026 rates: SE tax 15.3% × 0.9235 × P = $8,146.69; QBI deduction $10,716.76; standard deduction $16,100; taxable income $26,767.04; income tax $2,964.04; net $46,546.40, which is $3,878.87 a month and misses the $5,000 target by $1,121.13 a month. Solving for $5,000 a month net gives gross $78,037.88, costs $2,896.88, pre-tax $75,141.00, SE tax $10,617.09, income tax $4,523.92, total tax 20.15% of pre-tax profit — 445.93 catalogues a year, 37.16 a month, 1.72 a working day on 260 days, or 157.65 a year at a $495 label price. The $500 of fixed cost is repaid at catalogue 2.95, because $175 net of 2.9% and $0.30 is $169.62 and 500 ÷ 169.62 = 2.95. Caveat. The $175 and $495 prices are this page’s assumption, not an observed market price; no survey of what such a service currently charges was found.

The ladder

From $500 to $5,000 a month

Seven rungs. The asset is not a licence, a bond or a catalogue. It is the 102 days before the 10 February 2027 snapshot, and the work is putting other people’s songs into a free system that the Copyright Office has just documented as 37× worse at finding the small ones.

  1. Read the five tiers before you read anything about unclaimed millions

    The pool is not evenly distributed misfortune. 91 FR 33208 reports match rates of over 99% above $5,000 and 63% under $100, which means the entire business of this page lives in the bottom two tiers and nowhere else. A pitch aimed at writers whose songs earn thousands is aimed at the 1% that already works.

    >99% at >$5,000 · 83% at $100–500 · 63% under $100
  2. Sell the date, not the money

    “You may have unclaimed royalties” is unprovable and sounds like every other pitch. “The database snapshot is on or around 10 February 2027 and each month after that releases one more month of 2021” is a published fact on the collective’s own site. Quote the page, link the page, and let the calendar do the selling.

    102 days to the snapshot · 152 to the first distribution
  3. Never take custody, and say so in the first line of the agreement

    The client stays the MLC member. The MLC pays the client directly. You are paid a fee by the client for registration work and nothing else. The moment money routes through you, you are a publishing administrator holding other people’s funds, and this stops being a $500 business and starts being a bonded one with an entirely different risk profile.

    your revenue = fees · never a share of royalties
  4. Price flat, and show the client the five-year arithmetic

    Songtrust publishes $100 once plus 20% of non-performance royalties. Over five years that beats a $175 flat fee only below $75 a year of US mechanicals; over ten years, below $37.50. Put both numbers on the invoice. A client who can check the comparison is a client who does not churn when someone else sends a cheaper offer.

    $100 + 20% forever · vs · $175 once
  5. Find the first twenty through distributors and producers, not through songwriters

    A songwriter earning under $100 a year does not search for publishing administration. The people who already hold lists of them are the small distributors, beat sellers, sync libraries, production-music catalogues and studio engineers who onboard them one at a time. Twenty of those relationships is the whole marketing plan, exactly as it was in the last edition and for the same reason.

    37.16 catalogues a month · 1.72 a working day
  6. Do the registration properly or do not do it at all

    Writer shares, publisher shares, ISWC, ISRCs on every recording of the work, the performing-rights affiliation of each writer, and a split that adds to 100. The collective can only match what it can read. A sloppy registration produces a conflict, a conflict freezes the payment, and the frozen payment keeps the work in the 37% you were hired to get it out of.

    splits to 100 · every ISRC · every co-writer
  7. Know that the gross target is not the net one

    $60,000 of fees nets $3,878.87 a month after 2026 federal self-employment and income tax, which misses the target by $1,121.13. The real number is $78,037.88 gross and 445.93 catalogues a year. Any version of this page that quotes 342 catalogues is quoting the before-tax figure.

    $78,037.88 gross → $5,000.00/month net

Interested in the actual playbook?

Sources

7 primary documents
  1. 17 U.S.C. § 115 — (d)(3)(H)(i), (d)(3)(J)(i)–(iv), (d)(7)(A). Read 31 October 2026. (J) and (d)(7)(A) read from a US Code mirror; Public Law citation not verified.
  2. Copyright Office, Periodic Review of the Designations of the Mechanical Licensing Collective and Digital Licensee Coordinator, Docket No. 2024–1, 91 FR 33208 — published 3 June 2026, read 31 October 2026.
  3. The MLC, Market Share Distributions — read 31 October 2026.
  4. The MLC, Self-Administered Songwriters — and [Membership](https://themlc.com/membership) — both read 31 October 2026.
  5. The MLC, Annual Membership Meeting release — meeting 29 September 2026, release 30 September 2026, read 31 October 2026.
  6. Songtrust, Pricing, Terms, and FAQs — read 31 October 2026.
  7. The Tax Adviser, Annual inflation adjustments announced for tax year 2026 — 9 October 2025, reporting Rev. Proc. 2025-32. Read 31 October 2026. Secondary.

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