$500 idea · Edition 004 · pattern break · Japan · Edition 004
Japan added 42,172 secondhand dealers last year and lost two secondhand markets.
The National Police Agency’s 「令和７年中における古物営業・質屋営業の概況」 counts, at end-December 2025, 614,118 古物商 and 1,076 古物市場主. One rose by 42,172 in twelve months; the other fell by two. Both licences are issued by the same sentence of the same statute — 古物営業法第３条, 「前条第二項第一号又は第二号に掲げる営業を営もうとする者は、都道府県公安委員会の許可を受けなければならない。」 — over the same counter, for the same ¥19,000. Item one buys inventory risk. Item two buys the room the inventory trades in. The listed holder of item two, 株式会社ユー・エス・エス, reported an operating margin of 52.5% for the year to March 2026 while owning none of the cars.
The consensus story about Japanese resale is a dealer story: the market is growing, the licence is cheap, get the ¥19,000 古物商許可 and start buying. 614,118 people are acting on that reading, and 42,172 of them arrived last year. The documents describe a second licence, sold at the identical price by the identical authority, that puts the holder on the other side of every one of those dealers’ trades — and the number of people who bought it fell.
古物営業法第２条第２項第２号 defines the thing precisely: 「古物市場（古物商間の古物の売買又は交換のための市場をいう。以下同じ。）を経営する営業」 [a business operating a secondhand market, meaning a market for the sale or exchange of secondhand goods between licensed dealers]. The holder of item two does not buy, does not hold, does not mark up and does not eat the write-down. It charges admission to a room in which licensed dealers are legally permitted to trade with each other, and takes a fee from both sides of each trade that clears.
So why does almost nobody hold it? Because the fee is not the barrier and never was. Aichi Prefectural Police list what must accompany the ¥19,000: 「市場規約及び参集者名簿」 [the market’s rules and the roster of those who will attend]. You must name the dealers who will come before you are licensed. The state prices the venue at ¥19,000 and charges the applicant in liquidity instead. That is the whole trade, and it is why the count has stayed flat while the dealer count compounds: the scarce asset is a roster, and a roster is the one thing ¥78,255 of capital can be spent assembling.
The timing is the second half of it. The 2018 amendment to the Act, in force 1 April 2020, replaced the per-prefecture licence with one national licence — 「主たる営業所等の所在地を管轄する公安委員会の許可を受ければ、その他の都道府県に営業所等を設ける場合には届出で足りることとする。」 The market-operator count collapsed from 1,504 to 852 that year, which is the de-duplication: 43.4% of all market permits had been second and third copies held by operators running rooms in more than one prefecture. Six years later the count is 1,076 — still below the 1,566 of 2018, even though each of those 1,076 now covers the whole country for one payment.
The one-line contrast with the country this page is not about: the United States has no national licence for the venue at all, so the dealer-only auction there is a private contract rather than a ¥19,000 permit anyone may apply for.
The evidence
8 findingsOne article licenses the dealer and the room — items one and two
第２条第２項第１号 is the dealer: 「古物を売買し、若しくは交換し、又は委託を受けて売買し、若しくは交換する営業であつて」. 第２号 is the room: 「古物市場（古物商間の古物の売買又は交換のための市場をいう。以下同じ。）を経営する営業」. 第３条 licenses both in one sentence: 「前条第二項第一号又は第二号に掲げる営業を営もうとする者は、都道府県公安委員会（以下「公安委員会」という。）の許可を受けなければならない。」 A third category, 第３号 古物競りあっせん業, needs no 許可 at all — only a 届出 under 第１０条の２.
614,118 dealers, 1,076 markets, 170 auction brokers
表１ 「古物商等の許可件数の推移」 splits the two columns year by year. 古物商 ran 571,946 → 614,118; 古物市場主 ran 1,078 → 1,076. The agency’s text: 「古物商等の令和７年末における許可件数は、61万5,194件で、前年比４万2,170件の増加となっている。」 表２ gives 古物競りあっせん業 notifications at 170, up 7. Enforcement against the whole 615,194: 行政処分 874 (取消 11, 営業停止 8, 指示 855) and 検挙 of 19 cases, 12 persons.
¥19,000 buys the room; the roster is what it actually costs
The Metropolitan Police Department’s procedure index prices 古物市場主許可申請 at 「19,000円」, the same figure it charges for 古物商許可申請. Aichi Prefectural Police, in the prefecture where Japan’s largest auction operator is domiciled, publish the attachment list and the non-refund rule: 「不許可となった場合及び申請を取り下げた場合でも手数料の返却はできません。」 Among the attachments, unique to this licence and required of both individuals and companies: 「市場規約及び参集者名簿」, plus one 管理者 per market who may not be someone living far away or working elsewhere.
The licence went national in 2020 and the count still has not recovered — 1,076 vs 1,566
The agency’s own background note: 「近年、複数の都道府県で営業を営む古物商等が増加し、営業所等の全国展開が進んでいる。」 The old rule was 「営業所等が所在する都道府県ごとに古物営業の許可を受けることが必要。」; the new one, 「主たる営業所等の所在地を管轄する公安委員会の許可を受ければ、その他の都道府県に営業所等を設ける場合には届出で足りることとする。」 表１ shows the consequence in the market column: 1,566 (2018), 1,504 (2019), 852 (2020), 1,076 (2025). The series note attributes the fall to the amendment.
Revenue ¥113.8bn, operating profit ¥59.8bn, margin 52.5%
Both records. Revenue rose 12.9% and operating profit 13.3%; 3.50 million vehicles were listed at a 成約率 of 67.0% and a market share of 43.2%, up 1.2 points. CEO 安藤之弘 described the mechanism in one sentence at the May 2026 results briefing: 「シェアが拡大するほど良質な車とバイヤーがさらに集まり、より高く売れるという好循環が生まれる」 [the more share expands, the more good cars and buyers gather, and the higher things sell — a virtuous circle]. That is a roster compounding, described by the man who owns the largest one.
The published per-car tariff: 8,000 / 10,000 / 10,000
The company’s own investor deck prints the average fees it charges: 出品手数料 ¥8,000, 成約手数料 ¥10,000, 落札手数料 ¥10,000 — ¥28,000 per completed sale — with remote bidders paying ¥15,000 by terminal or ¥20,000 online. In April 2025 it raised the USS JAPAN 落札手数料 by ¥3,000; Ando’s account of the pass-through was 「スムーズな移行ができた」 [the transition went smoothly], with no observed buyer resistance. A room with 48,864 on-site member firms can reprice at will; that is the asset.
A small Tokyo room charges 5% + 3% and ¥3,000 at the door
Its published terms: 入会費・年会費 無料; Thursday 出品手数料 10% under ¥10,000 and 5% at or above it, 落札手数料 「落札価格の３％」; Monday 出品手数料 「一律無料（０％）」 against a 5% buyer fee; attendance ¥1,000 Monday, ¥3,000 Thursday. Entry requires a 古物商許可 endorsed 「行商する」. It reports roughly 4,000 lots per session and a sell-through above 90%. Membership is free because the roster, not the subscription, is the revenue.
The target is 37 lots a month, and the licence is 0.7 days of it
Currency: $500 × 156.51 = ¥78,255; $5,000 × 156.51 = ¥782,550 a month, ×12 = ¥9,390,600. Entry: 19,000 ÷ 78,255 = 24.3% of capital, leaving ¥59,255; 19,000 ÷ (782,550 ÷ 30) = 0.73 days of the target. The flow in the figure, per 100 lots: 100 × 8,000 = 800,000; 67 × 10,000 = 670,000 twice; total ¥2,140,000; ÷ 100 = ¥21,400 per lot listed; ÷ 67 = ¥31,940 per car sold, not the ¥28,000 headline. Failures: 33 × 8,000 = ¥264,000 = 12.3% of the take. Nationally: 3,500,000 × 0.670 = 2,345,000 sold, 1,155,000 unsold, × 8,000 = ¥9.24bn a year, 9.24 ÷ 113.8 = 8.1% of revenue. Margin check: 59.8 ÷ 113.8 = 52.5%. Routes to target: 782,550 ÷ 21,400 = 36.6 → 37 lots; at Timeless’s 5% + 3% = 8%, 782,550 ÷ 0.08 = ¥9,781,875 of turnover, ÷ 4 sessions = ¥2,445,469 each, ÷ ¥20,000 average hammer = 122.3 → 123 lots a session, which is 3.1% of Timeless’s own 4,000; on the door alone, 782,550 ÷ 3,000 ÷ 4 = 66 dealers in the room per session. Permit ratio: 614,118 ÷ 1,076 = 571 to one. 2020 de-duplication: (1,504 − 852) ÷ 1,504 = 43.4%. Rate is the MUFG TTM for 23 October 2026, TTS 157.51 and TTB 155.51.
The ladder
From $500 to $5,000 a month · ¥78,525 → ¥785,250Aichi’s attachment list makes the roster a condition of the licence, not a consequence of it. Every 古物商 is a named, licensed, publicly verifiable counterparty who already attends somebody’s room. Signing twenty of them to a written 市場規約 costs nothing and is the only part of this that cannot be bought.
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Build the 参集者名簿 before you spend a yen
Aichi’s attachment list makes the roster a condition of the licence, not a consequence of it. Every 古物商 is a named, licensed, publicly verifiable counterparty who already attends somebody’s room. Signing twenty of them to a written 市場規約 costs nothing and is the only part of this that cannot be bought.
市場規約 + 参集者名簿 · ¥0 -
Buy item two, not item one
第３条 prices them identically at ¥19,000 and issues them from the same 公安委員会. 614,118 people chose the licence that requires you to own the goods; 1,076 chose the licence that charges the people who do. Nothing about the application is harder — it is the same 様式第１号, the same 誓約書, the same 身分証明書.
¥19,000 ÷ ¥78,255 = 24.3% of capital -
One permit now covers all 47 prefectures
Since 1 April 2020 a room in a second prefecture needs only a 届出. The 43.4% collapse in the permit count that year is the measure of what the old rule had been charging multi-prefecture operators. That discount has been available for six years and the number of holders is still below its 2018 level.
1,566 → 852 → 1,076 · one fee, 47 prefectures -
Charge the listing, not just the sale
USS takes its ¥8,000 at the first hop, before the lot is known to clear. At a 67% sell-through that is 12.3% of its take coming from auctions that failed — ¥9.24bn a year nationally. A room priced only on success is a room that has given its worst-case revenue away.
33 × 8,000 = ¥264,000 of ¥2,140,000 -
Price both sides, then price the door
Timeless charges 5% of the seller and 3% of the buyer and ¥3,000 for walking in, and makes membership free. At ¥3,000 a head over four sessions, 66 dealers in the room reaches the whole target before a single lot is sold. The door fee is not a rounding error; it is the only revenue line that does not depend on the auction working.
782,550 ÷ 3,000 ÷ 4 = 66 dealers a session -
Pick a 品目 whose dealers have no room
古物営業法施行規則 divides the trade into thirteen categories, and the 1,076 licensed rooms are not spread evenly across them. Cars have USS and nineteen venues; the long tail — 機械工具類, 事務機器類, 皮革・ゴム製品類 — has dealers who travel to a general room because no specialist one exists near them.
13 品目 · 1,076 rooms · 614,118 dealers -
Work the lot count, because that is the variable you own
You cannot set the hammer price and you should not try. At USS’s tariff the target is 37 lots a month; at an 8% combined take on ¥20,000 lots it is 123 a session, which is 3.1% of what one Tokyo room already turns over. Everything on this ladder is throughput, and throughput is the roster from rung one.
782,550 ÷ 21,400 = 37 lots a month -
Never take a position in the goods
The margin is the whole argument: 52.5% at the largest room in the country, on revenue earned from inventory it never owns and write-downs it never takes. The moment the market operator starts bidding, it is competing with its own roster and has converted item two back into item one.
¥59.8bn ÷ ¥113.8bn = 52.5% · inventory ¥0
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